Energy2009 Afterword

The Learning Curve As A Tool For Change

Afterword: A Note on the Learning Curve Concept as Applied to Energy

By Daniel Yankelovich

It is hardly surprising that the public lacks important facts about the energy problem. The problem is complicated and the public is far less attentive than experts and activists. But it would be a terrible mistake to assume that if and when the knowledge gap is filled, the public will then be ready to support sound policies.

People can absorb factual information much faster than they can overcome wishful thinking and denial or accept far-reaching changes in habits and lifestyles. When people are given a few facts to take into account, it doesn’t take any more time to absorb them than it does to impart them (e.g., AIG gave the employees of its Financial Products Division $168 million in bonuses).

But it may take months (and even years) to accept the need for painful change. Factual information is a necessary but insufficient condition for accepting change.

That is why we have adopted the concept of the learning curve to describe the complex process whereby the public grapples with the need for change on difficult issues. The metaphor of a “learning curve” suggests that the process will take time and will not proceed in a straight line.

This is, indeed, the case. Climbing the learning curve involves three distinct stages. Consciousness-raising to make the public aware of the threat is the first stage. The second — and longest and most arduous stage — involves the need for people to confront their own wishful thinking and denial as they wrestle with the need to make painful tradeoffs and sacrifices. The third and final stage is resolution and support for remedial action.

Our report suggests that the American public is fairly well advanced along the first stage of the learning curve — consciousness-raising — but is just beginning to work its way through the other two critical stages.